Military Escalation
Military Escalation ![]()
President Trump’s America destabilizes U.S.-China relations across diplomatic, military, and economic lines, and simultaneously abandons Taiwan in the face of unprovoked Chinese invasion.
The Trump Administration leaves formal and informal nuclear non-proliferation and deterrence frameworks and forums while investing in nuclear warhead production and conducting nuclear testing.
President Trump orders the "Department of Defense to [...] inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure, and operations” in Mexico."
In The Room
Ousted from the room
I think he’s unfit for office… He puts himself before country... And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.
Mark Esper
Secretary of Defense from Jul. 23, 2019 to Nov. 9, 2020
We don’t take an oath to a country. We don’t take an oath to a religion. We don’t take an oath to a king or a queen... And we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator.
General Mark Milley
Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff from Sep. 30, 2019 to Sep. 29, 2023
Trump has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.
Richard Spencer
Secretary of the Navy from Aug. 3, 2019 to Nov. 24, 2019
Politicized Intelligence
Politicized Intelligence ![]()
President Trump purges the Intelligence Community (IC) of non-loyalists and replaces expert civil servants with allies from outside of the IC and from IC personnel loyal to Trump through January 6, 2021.
President Trump treats nation-level negotiations and foreign relations as Trump Organization deals and relationships, listening to enemy nations, sharing U.S. intelligence with sectarian foreign leaders, and pressuring IC staff to support his approach.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
He’s fundamentally ignorant... He thinks international relations are about personal relations, which is a line and approach that I can tell you, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are eagerly looking forward to.
John Bolton
White House National Security Adviser from Apr. 9, 2018 to Sep. 10, 2019
Trump and other officials have repeatedly compromised our principles in pursuit of partisan advantage and personal gain.
H.R. McMaster
White House National Security Adviser from Feb. 20, 2017 to Apr. 9, 2018
It’s more than just a bunch of papers and what big deal is this and so forth. Lives can be lost.
Dan Coats
Director of National Intelligence from Mar. 16, 2017 to Aug. 15, 2019
I watched him show documents to people at Mar-a-Lago on the dining room patio. He has no respect for classified information. Never did.
Stephanie Grisham
White House Communications Director from Jul. 2019 to Apr. 2020
Partisan Rule of Law
Partisan Rule of Law ![]()
President Trump invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807, granting him complete authority to deploy the U.S. military domestically to police Americans. With SCOTUS rendering crimes that are cloaked as “official acts” to be lawful, long-standing military training about disobeying “unlawful orders” is cast into chaos.
President Trump pushes the bounds of Unitary Executive Theory and urge the Court majority that overturned the Chevron deference to overturn Humphrey’s Executor v. U.S., granting the President near complete control over independent agencies, including the CFPB, SEC, FEC, FCC, and FTC.
President Trump weaponizes the DOJ against political rivals to seek retribution, investigating politicians, journalists, activists, and everyday citizens who he disfavors.
The Trump Admin pressures the FTC, FCC, and DOJ to investigate corporations, investment funds, and non-profit foundations, universities, and groups that support ESG or DEI strategies.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.
Mike Pence
Vice president from Jan. 20, 2017 to Jan. 20, 2021
A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution and the rule of law.
John Kelly
White House Chief of Staff from Jul. 31, 2017 to Jan. 2, 2019
He runs the risk of really dismantling and greatly incapacitating the DOJ and the FBI.
Andrew McCabe
Deputy Director of the FBI from Feb. 1, 2016 to Jan. 29, 2018
He will always put his own interest and gratifying his own ego ahead of everything else, including the country’s interest
Bill Barr
Attorney General from Feb. 14, 2019 to Dec. 23, 2020
The attacks on the Capitol were an assault on our democracy and on the tradition of peaceful transitions of power that the United States of America first brought to the world.
Alex Azar
Secretary of Health and Human Services from Jan. 29, 2018 to Jan. 20, 2021
I think he will use the levers of government to punish the people who he believes have been disloyal to him or to his approach.
Chris Christie
Head of Trump’s transition team from May 2016 to Nov. 2016
We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.
H.R. McMaster
White House National Security Adviser from Feb. 20, 2017 to Apr. 9, 2018
Democratic Backsliding
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Democratic Backsliding ![]()
The Trump Administration’s DOJ moves election-related investigations of local election officials from its civil to criminal bureaus and prosecutes election officials for alleged 2020 violations in addition to any claimed violations in 2024.
The 6-3 Supreme Court lets stand new racially gerrymandered maps to consolidate Republican power and tolerates actions that further erode the efficacy of remaining protections under the Voting Rights Act.
The Trump administration pushes regulatory agencies run by loyalists, like the DOJ, FCC, or the FTC to investigate and sanction media companies critical of him and his administration, while trying to force media companies to platform all political speech. The administration also argues for the reversal of the libel standards for public officials in New York Times v. Sullivan to make it easier to sue reporters and chill the media’s coverage.
The Trump administration adds a citizenship question to the 2030 decennial census.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people — does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us.
General James Mattis
Secretary of Defense from Jan. 20, 2017 to Jan. 1, 2019
Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.
Bill Barr
Attorney General from Feb. 14, 2019 to Dec. 23, 2020
By the time I left the White House, I was convinced he was not fit to be president. … I think it is a danger for the United States if he gets a second term.
John Bolton
White House National Security Adviser from Apr. 9, 2018 to Sep. 10, 2019
[Trump] has shown time and again he cares more about his own ego and interests than in building trust in our ever-fragile institutions of democracy.
Jon Huntsman
Ambassador to Russia from Oct. 3, 2017 to Oct. 3, 2019
Fundamentally, a second Trump term could mean the end of American democracy as we know it, and I don’t say that lightly.
Alyssa Farah Griffin
White House Director of Strategic Communications from Apr. 7, 2020 to Dec. 4, 2020
I have a lot of concerns about Donald Trump. I have said that he’s a threat to democracy.
Mark Esper
Secretary of Defense from Jul. 23, 2019 to Nov. 9, 2020
To him, a lie is not a lie. It’s just what he thinks. He doesn’t know the difference between the truth and a lie.
Dan Coats
Director of National Intelligence from Mar. 16, 2017 to Aug. 15, 2019
Politicized Government Operations
Politicized Government Operations ![]()
President Trump reinstates and implements his Schedule F Executive Order and conducts mass firings of civil service personnel, optimizing for political appointees throughout the ranks across all agencies and offices.
From trainings that convey an expectation of loyalty, to revoking security clearances for individuals the Administration disfavors, to issuing pardons to allies, President Trump uses carrots and sticks to drive loyal operations.
Trump and his loyalist appointees in the Presidential Personnel Office utilize the Vacancies Act, allowing the President to appoint acting officials to Senate-confirmed jobs (like a Cabinet secretary), circumventing the Senate’s constitutional role as a check on nominees.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
Trump will insist in staffing a second term on personal loyalty to him above all… That is a very dangerous circumstance.
John Bolton
White House National Security Adviser from Apr. 9, 2018 to Sep. 10, 2019
It’ll be a huge personnel problem of people who have no business being in senior positions in the federal government.
Chris Christie
Head of Trump’s transition team from May 2016 to Nov. 2016
I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.
Mick Mulvaney
Acting White House Chief of Staff from Jan. 2, 2019 to Mar. 31, 2020
Immigration Cuts
Immigration Cuts ![]()
President Trump’s DHS, instructing ICE to use its full existing Expedited Removal (ER) within and beyond its specified 100-mile border zone (pertaining to all land and sea borders) limited use authorities, attempts to detain and deport 11 million undocumented immigrants as well as visa-holders from nations the Administration disfavors in addition to U.S. citizens born to immigrants through disregarding the 14th Amendment’s birthright citizenship.
President Trump caps and phases out H1-B, ~300,000 H2-A, ~64,000 H2-B, and ~445,000 student visas, prioritizing denying visas to students from nations President Trump disfavors.
President Trump and the Trump administration DHS grant intelligence community security privileges to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers, agencies and agents that have demonstrated loyalty to him.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
It became clear that saying no, and refusing to do it myself was not going to be enough, so it was time for me to offer my resignation.
Kirstjen Nielsen
Secretary of Homeland Security from Dec. 6, 2017 to Apr. 10, 2019
Anybody with sense – somebody like Mattis or Tillerson – they immediately shunned and stayed away from Trump.
Tom Bossert
Homeland Security Advisor from Jan. 20, 2017 to Apr. 10, 2018
Renegotiated Tariff and Trade Policies
Renegotiated Tariff and Trade Policies ![]()
The Trump administration implements a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a minimum 10% universal tariff on all goods.
The Trump administration restricts U.S. corporations’ ability to invest in Chinese assets and prohibits Chinese corporations it deems affiliated with the Chinese Community Party (CCP) from investing in U.S assets.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
Trump doesn’t understand alliances.
John Bolton
White House National Security Adviser from Apr. 9, 2018 to Sep. 10, 2019
Supply Chain Disruption
Supply Chain Disruption ![]()
The Trump administration greatly restricts Chinese manufacturing in America’s corporate supply chains.
The Trump administration impounds portions of funding allocated through the CHIPS and Science Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law) related to climate technologies–and uses “impoundment” to disregard Congressional spending allocations more broadly.
The Trump Administration eliminates grant funding and subsidies the administration disfavors across NIH, FEMA, NSF, EPA, and DOE, and conditions funding for Medicare and Medicaid on pregnancy and abortion reporting compliance.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
His understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of U.S. history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.
Rex Tillerson
Secretary of State from Feb. 1, 2017 to Mar. 31, 2018
Politicized Federal Reserve
Politicized Federal Reserve ![]()
President Trump pressures the Federal Reserve Chair he appoints in 2026 to maintain low interest rates when politically advantageous, even if doing so would have negative short-term and long-term impacts on the U.S. economy.
President Trump and Congress limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to intervene in the case of financial crises.
President Trump pushes the Federal Reserve to devalue the U.S. Dollar.
In The Room
Ousted from the room
I am concerned that the atmosphere in the White House is no longer conducive or no one has the personality to stand up and tell the president what he doesn’t want to hear.
Gary Cohn
Director of the National Economic Council from Jan. 20, 2017 to Apr. 2, 2018
Restricted Reproductive Rights
Restricted Reproductive Rights ![]()
The Trump administration orders the Justice Department to enforce the Comstock Act to prevent the shipping of abortion medication.
The Trump administration HHS, NIH, and CDC align guidance, rulemaking, and program investments to the administration’s agenda, abandoning programs related to comprehensive sexual education, pregnancy prevention, abortion care, as well as minority and LGBTQ healthcare.
In The Room
Climate Mitigation Reversal
Climate Mitigation Reversal ![]()
Congress and the Trump administration repeal the Inflation Reduction Act and climate-related portions of the CHIPS and Science Act.
The Trump administration eliminates many climate and renewable energy subsidies, grants, and federal programs, and uses impoundment to block funding allocated to climate mitigation, renewable, and electric grid projects.
The Trump administration ends climate-related data collection, privatizes FEMA flood insurance, disbands NOAA and privatizes the National Weather Service.
The Trump administration maximizes production of coal, oil & gas (offshore and onshore), mining, and logging on federal lands.
In The Room
This page outlines hypothetical risk scenarios that could unfold during a second Trump term.